Dem Pollster Explains Red Wave Could Become A Red Tsunami
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Democrat Pollster Douglas Schoen wrote an article for the Hill titled “How the impending red wave could become a tsunami.”
In the article, Schoen explains that based on the current polling trends the GOP is likely to gain between 30 to 35 seats in the House.
That number can rise all the way to 50 if they win all of the seats that are considered toss-ups.
Schoen also said that findings from likely voter polls suggest Republicans will enjoy an advantage over Democrats in terms of turnout and will likely outperform what the polls are finding.
Based on current trends, Republicans will likely gain between 30 to 35 House seats, and come away with a one or two-seat advantage in the Senate. This outcome would flip both chambers of Congress to GOP control, but wouldn’t necessarily rise to 1994 or 2010 levels, when Democrats lost 53 and 63 House seats, respectively.
In order for the GOP to see a net gain of 50 House seats, the party would need to win every single one of the 37 races rated as a “toss-up” by RealClearPolitics, in addition to the 225 where they are favored. Under this scenario, Republicans would come away with a 262-seat majority, for a net gain of 50 seats.
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Indeed, given how considerably the national environment has shifted in favor of the GOP over these last couple of weeks, the party is likely on track to win a large share of those toss-up House contests.
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Likely voter polls — the most predictive of actual election results — are even more favorable for Republicans than polls of registered voters or simply all adults. This is suggestive of two potential trends: first, that the GOP will outperform expectations on Election Day, and second, that Republicans will enjoy a sizable turnout advantage.
As Election Day nears, pollsters have moved more races in favor of the GOP.
The Cook Political Report just moved 10 House races towards the GOP.
Ten Democrat-held congressional seats shifted in the Republicans favor according to Cook Political Report’s House forecast, just one week before the 2022 midterm elections are set to take place.
As the midterms near, seats that were anticipated likely wins for the Democratic Party are now appearing vulnerable for Republican pickup following spikes in violent crime, rising prices of gas and consumer goods, concerns over education, and the ongoing crisis at the southern border.
How many seats will the GOP pick up?
